How far restaurant sales fall after the holidays
Census Bureau figures, not adjusted for seasons, show how sharp the winter dip is. U.S. restaurants and other eating places sold $76.4 billion in December 2025, then $70.9 billion in January 2026 and $70.0 billion in February [1]. By May, monthly sales were back to $85.2 billion [1].
| Month | Sales | Compared with December 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | $76.4 billion | Baseline |
| January 2026 | $70.9 billion | 7.2% lower |
| February 2026 | $70.0 billion | 8.4% lower |
| May 2026 | $85.2 billion | 11.5% higher |
These are national totals, and a Jersey Shore seasonal spot or a commuter lunch counter can swing far more. Use your own last two winters as the real guide. The national pattern just confirms the planning point: February is usually the thinnest month, and the gap between it and late spring can be close to a fifth of sales.
January 2027 raises payroll in the slowest month
New Jersey's minimum wage rises to $16.48 an hour for most employees on January 1, 2027 [2]. For tipped staff, the minimum cash wage rises from $6.05 to $6.61 an hour, with the maximum tip credit staying at $9.87 [2]. If a server's cash wage plus tips falls short of the full minimum in a slow week, the employer must pay the difference [2].
That last rule matters in February. Fewer covers means fewer tips, so the make-up payments you rarely see in summer can show up in winter. Build them into your January and February payroll budget before you decide how much cash you need.
Choose funding whose payment bends with your sales
The comparator above shows the key question for a restaurant: does the payment shrink when sales shrink? NerdWallet explains that an advance can be collected as a set share of card sales, typically 5% to 20%, or as fixed withdrawals from your bank account regardless of how much you earn in sales [4]. A fixed debit set from summer numbers takes a bigger bite out of every February dollar.
Cheaper options are steadier still. A line of credit charges only on what you draw, and published rates run from 10% to 99% APR [6]. SBA microloans go up to $50,000, with rates generally between 8% and 13% and terms up to seven years [5]. Both take longer to arrange than an advance, which is why the fall is the time to apply.
Card fee moves before the slow months
Your processing bill has two parts: a percentage of each sale and fixed monthly charges. When volume drops, the percentage shrinks with it but the fixed charges do not. In our example, $150 a month in fixed fees is 0.25% of $60,000 in May and about 0.30% of $49,200 in February. Find every monthly, PCI, statement and software charge on your bill and ask which ones you can drop.
Winter also shifts sales online, toward takeout and delivery ordered by phone or app. Visa's published rates show the difference: a standard rewards card in a restaurant costs 2.10% with a 4 cent minimum when the card is present, and 2.20% with an 8 cent minimum when it is not [3]. If your online orders run through a separate account, check what it charges for keyed and online sales.
- Pull your last three statements and total the fixed fees in dollars.
- Check whether online and phone orders are billed at a higher rate than in-person sales.
- Ask your processor which fees are optional before you sign anything new in January.
A fall checklist for a restaurant's winter
- Pull your last two Januarys and Februarys and write down the lowest weekly sales.
- Rebuild your January payroll at the 2027 wage rates, including tip make-up.
- Apply for a line of credit or microloan in October or November.
- Review card fees and cut fixed charges before volume drops.
- If you must take an advance, ask for a split of card sales and get reconciliation terms in writing.
Batch Capital can check lines, microloans and advances together for restaurants. For the full picture on what card processing costs a restaurant, see our restaurant processing guide.